Round 4

[nax]

OK, so our alliance has two major and somewhat complicated votes to plot out. We don't have a majority in either Shudra or Vaishyahmanahahmgahd, so we're have to play close to the line and make the rules work for us.

On Shudra, Brookie is alone at the bottom, and Jordan is not permitted to cast a vote. That means that there's a very real possibility of a tie at the bottom. Ricky says he can command BKs vote. Maybe he can, and if so the tie is pretty much guaranteed. So, here's where it gets tricky:

If BK and Brookie vote Animal or Quanz, and both of them vote Brookie, we have a tie and a likely deadlock. Which is fine because if that happens, Brookie and whichever one of those two she and BK vote for will not have to pull rocks. 50/50 chance the other goes home (and 50/50 it's BK, which is ... meh.)

If BK and Brookie vote Jordan, and Animal and Quanz vote Brookie, on the revote there's a pretty good chance one or both of Animal an Quanz will switch to Jordan (also... meh), but if they DON'T then it's a 66% chance the purple rock with go to one of those two, and only a 33% chance it goes to BK.

And if BK doesn't do as Ricky asks, we lose Brookie.

On Vaishyamaopnhfaglkna, it's even more complicated. Lexi and Jedda are both in danger, and Brenda will give the Amulet to one of them. Woods wants to vote Jedda, but is talking about splitting the vote (using Joe) with 2 to Jedda and 1 to Lexi (which he could easily flip). Zack, though, is talking to Lexi (for reasons I don't completely understand or trust) and is copy/pasting his convos with Woods. Zack says he wants to save Lexi, but hasn't yet been convinced to turn on Woods. So...

If Zack agrees to turn on Woods, all's good - He, Jedda and Lexi vote Woods and who gets the Amulet is immaterial.

If Zack doesn't agree to that - or says he does and then turns on Lexi - then either Woods goes to RC, or it's a tie, depending on where the amulet is and who got two votes. UNLESS the Amulet is with the two voter and only one vote is cast on the other, in which case Woods goes to RC.

In the case of a tie, there's a revote, and BOY does it get complicated at that point. Zack or Joe could choose to change their vote to Woods, or both could gang up on the unprotected of Jedda or Lexi. If the latter, that person goes to RC. It WON'T remain deadlocked at that point, because there's no need for it to do so.

Basically, a tie is a disaster...

SO, Lexi is working on Zack to go with a Woods vote, and I've been working on Joe for the same purpose. Joe doesn't trust me, after I lied to him over the last vote, but I can be very convincing when I want to be. Here's our conversation from today:

[3:34:29 PM] David Oberholzer: Just out of curiosity - and if you feel I shouldn't know this, totally understandable - but what's your plan for the mid tier in this vote?
[3:34:46 PM] Joe Purcell: To not be the one voted out.
[3:34:50 PM] David Oberholzer: LOL!
[3:34:50 PM] Joe Purcell: Lol.
[3:35:07 PM] David Oberholzer: With what little I know about what's going on there, I don't think you're a target.
[3:35:17 PM] David Oberholzer: It seems to be between Lexi, Jedda and Woods.
[3:35:24 PM] Joe Purcell: Well hooray for Zack and I. Lol.
[3:35:30 PM] Joe Purcell: I am curious to know who Brenda will give the idol.
[3:35:44 PM] David Oberholzer: I'm not CERTAIN, but I THINK she'll give it to Lexi.
[3:36:18 PM] Joe Purcell: Hmmmm.
[3:36:31 PM] David Oberholzer: Yeah. That made me go "hmmmm" too.
[3:37:11 PM] David Oberholzer: Just so you know, I'm giving this info to you because I know I have to make it up to you from that last vote.
[3:37:23 PM] David Oberholzer: I frickin' OWE you some honesty, now. Kharma.
[3:37:42 PM] Joe Purcell: Right. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice... I will cut your face.
[3:37:43 PM] Joe Purcell: Lol.
[3:37:49 PM] David Oberholzer: LOL!
[3:37:53 PM] David Oberholzer: I NEED my face!
[3:38:37 PM] David Oberholzer: I'm sure you've figured that I have a little influence with the mids people... if there is one person you'd want to SAVE there, who would it be?
[3:39:09 PM] Joe Purcell: Honestly I have no strategic affiliation to any of them.
[3:39:21 PM] Joe Purcell: But I don't talk to either Jedda or Lexi.
[3:39:30 PM] Joe Purcell: Whereas I at least have occasional convos with Woods and Zack.
[3:39:45 PM] David Oberholzer: ....... pick one? Please?
[3:39:57 PM] David Oberholzer: I'm trying to advise people, and like I said, I owe you.
[3:40:19 PM] Joe Purcell: Um, Zack, I guess?
[3:40:20 PM] Joe Purcell: Lol.
[3:40:32 PM] David Oberholzer: OK. Good. That's what I was hoping you'd say.
[3:40:54 PM] David Oberholzer: I'm worried about Woods. I have no idea who he's really working with.
[3:41:10 PM] Joe Purcell: He just seems like kind of a wildcard.
[3:41:13 PM] David Oberholzer: If he were someone I considered to be SMART I wouldn't worry so much. Smart I can predict.
[3:41:19 PM] David Oberholzer: Exactly!
[3:41:29 PM] David Oberholzer: But dumb... dumb can do just about anything.
[3:41:56 PM] Joe Purcell: Lmao.
[3:42:04 PM] Joe Purcell: He's a little socially awkward, in a sort of endearing way?
[3:42:16 PM] David Oberholzer: Yeah, I kinda got that from him, too.
[3:42:51 PM] David Oberholzer: Here's where my head is at:
[3:43:39 PM] David Oberholzer: If Lexi does get the amulet (like I think she will), I'm expecting a tie vote between Jedda and one other - either Zack or Woods.
[3:44:02 PM] David Oberholzer: If it comes to a tie between them, neither of them have an previous votes, so a deadlock goes to a purple rock.
[3:44:10 PM] David Oberholzer: And THAT puts you in jeopardy.
[3:44:33 PM] David Oberholzer: But if you, Jedda and Lexi all vote Woods, it won't have to come to that.
[3:44:44 PM] Joe Purcell: Um, I mean, last time I checked (IDK if the rules are different for this game), but ties are broken by rupees.
[3:44:59 PM] David Oberholzer: I checked with Sandy today:
[3:45:04 PM] David Oberholzer: First tie, revote
[3:45:11 PM] David Oberholzer: second tie, previous votes
[3:45:16 PM] David Oberholzer: deadlock: purple rock.
[3:45:26 PM] Joe Purcell: I see.
[3:45:31 PM] David Oberholzer: [1:28 PM] Sandy:

<<< ties go to a revote
revote then goes to past votes
past votes then goes to purple rock
[3:45:51 PM] Joe Purcell: IDK why he changed that.
[3:46:02 PM] David Oberholzer: Neither do I, but now we know.
[3:46:21 PM] David Oberholzer: And, like I said, I want to repay my debt to you by keepig you safe during this vote.
[3:47:11 PM] David Oberholzer: If it goes to purple rock, only you and Zack pull - Lexi has idol, and two who were voted for in the tie are immune.
[3:47:24 PM] David Oberholzer: I don't like those odds.
[3:47:29 PM] Joe Purcell: Right. Me neither.
[3:48:23 PM] David Oberholzer: The only other scenario is you, Zack and Woods all vote Jedda... but then you risk the possibility of Lexi hading the idol to Jedda. Again, 50/50, but less dangerous for you.
[3:48:35 PM] David Oberholzer: My solution is a sure thing for you and Zack.
[3:48:55 PM] Joe Purcell: Right.
[3:49:04 PM] Joe Purcell: Well, I don't really care what happens, as long as it's not me.
[3:49:09 PM] David Oberholzer:
[3:50:17 PM] David Oberholzer: The other good thing is that going with a Woods vote give you an "in" with Jedda and maybe Lexi
[3:50:53 PM] David Oberholzer: (and if this works out, it shores up my own relationship with Jedda, which still needs a lot of work)
[3:51:58 PM] Joe Purcell: Right.
[3:52:28 PM] David Oberholzer: And I know it's hard to trust me, after what I did this past weekend. I'm trying to rebuild with you. I'm hoping you'll give me the chance.
[3:54:28 PM] Joe Purcell: Well I mean if you're lying this time it would definitely be pretty hard to regain any trust whatsoever. Lol.
[3:54:38 PM] David Oberholzer: I know.
[3:55:17 PM] David Oberholzer: I'm not looking for an answer right now. Think about it.
Joe Purcell

He's shining me on, right now, I know this. But it's a matter of twisting the knife just a little more, and I think I've got him. I'll give it a couple hours, then come to him and say that now there's talk of switching the vote to him, because people think they can get Woods' vote to take him out. That'll turn him over, I'm pretty sure, but i need to give it a little time to simmer. More details as they come!

[nax]

[nax]

[nax]

Brenda is holding onto the Amulet, undecided what she should do with it. She's getting pressure from Woods and from Ricky to do what THEY want with it. I took a different tack: I suggested she remember that SHE has the power over what happens with the amulet, and nobody else does. She can decide to give it away, or even to withhold it, if that's what she thinks is best.

Really, I want her to think I have HER best interest at heart, not Ricky's, not Lexi's and not Jedda's.

Ricky's good at that. I'm better. I can achieve the same level of confidence in a person in just a few words that Ricky takes an hour to achieve. And then, I'm willing to sit back for awhile, let her stew and think, then come back and have her thinking of me as a friend, whereas Ricky and Woods will just be sources of pressure.

I hope.

[nax]

Woods is painting such a pretty little picture.

[8:51:43 PM] Woods: im over it. im ready to go to redemption island. thats where im headed
[8:52:11 PM] David Oberholzer: Did something break in the BrendaGate proceedings I don't know about?
[8:52:18 PM] David Oberholzer: I thought that jury was still out?
[8:53:35 PM] Woods: who knows. regardless... get it or not, im not using it
[8:53:37 PM] Woods: i dont want to be here.
[8:53:40 PM] Woods: i'll use it. but not on myself.
[8:54:02 PM] David Oberholzer: Seriously? I know this is a stressful game...
[8:54:20 PM] Woods: here as in on the island with these people. i'll go to redemption cove and live comfortably.. by myself. away from the insanity
[8:54:46 PM] David Oberholzer: Ugh. Drama. SO stressful, and a complete waste of energy.
[8:55:08 PM] Woods: which is why i am over it

It's easy to think that he's bullshitting, but after the way he reacted to Ricky I don't buy that. I think he's just not cut out for the stress or commitment that winning a game like this requires.

Now, that said, I think if he wound up with the Amulet, he'd play it. No question about it. But not because I think he's trying to play us right now, but because he won't be able to resist it. I mean, not on Ricky's scale, but some poor impulse control over there. He'll play it.

[nax]

And now all the principles have gone off to lala land. Didn't think this would get decided tonight...

But here's what I think will go down:

A) If Brenda gives Woods the Amulet, he'll play it on himself, but try to continue leading us to believe it'll go to Zack. If Jedda doesn't have the amulet by 2pm, he and Lexi vote for Zack, and see if I can't manage to persuade Joe to follow suit, though probably he won't. Jedda goes to RC.

B) If Brenda gives the amulet to Jedda or Lexi, I'm going to take a big risk and inform Joe where it is, and ask him to vote for Woods. I'll show him his "I'm giving up" convo as ammunition. With any luck, Woods goes to RC. But even this, the best case scenario, is really tricky. If it winds up tying, after the amulet play, then whichever isn't protected is probably toast, because if Joe doesn't vote with us in the first pass, he won't in the second pass, either.
  

• In this scenario, it's best to protect Lexi, because a tie with her involved will be lost, since she has a prior vote (thank you Fei).
  
  
• The weird possibility is if Joe, Woods and Zack decide NOT to split the vote and go all or nothing for either Lexi or Jedda. Then it's a crapshoot as to which one they shoot at.
  

C) If I believe Brenda withheld the amulet altogether, same scenario as above, because numbers will then be the only factor. I'd HAVE to sway Joe (or Lexi, who won't be very available tomorrow) will HAVE TO sway Zack. Then it's cross our fingers, wait and see.

This is going to be close....

[nax]